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Extra info for E-Vision 2000, Key Issues That Will Shape Our Energy Future: Summary of Proceedings, Scenario Analysis, Expert Elicitation, and Submitted Papers

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S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) released in October 1999, BEA (1999). S. economic growth. We give special attention to the rapid escalation in growth rates in the official projections, such as those by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). ” We do not focus on the issue of inflation and do not comment on potential implications for monetary policy. Sources of Economic Growth Our methodology is based on the production possibility frontier introduced by Jorgenson (1966) and employed by Jorgenson and Griliches (1967).

S. economic growth and Brynjolfsson and Yang (1996) review the micro evidence on computers and productivity. 5See Baily and Gordon (1988), Stiroh (1998a), Jorgenson and Stiroh (1999) and Department of Commerce (1999) for earlier discussions of relative price changes and input substitution in the hightech areas. 6% for 1995-98. See CEA (2000, pg. 35) for a comparison of productivity growth at various points in the economic expansions of the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s. 47 production of computers and the resulting acceleration in the price decline of computers.

3Stiroh (1999) critiques alternative new economy views, Triplett (1999) examines data issues in the new economy debate, and Gordon (1999b) provides an often-cited rebuttal of the new economy thesis. S. economy in the l960s, the data nonetheless clearly reveal a remarkable transformation of economic activity. Rapid declines in the prices of computers and semiconductors are well known and carefully documented, and evidence is accumulating that similar declines are taking place in the prices of software and communications equipment.

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